Is The Pie Big Enough

[the artist formerly known as ish]

Not good for trials if true

With Honda Montesa releasing pictures of the new four-stroke, and the smaller companies facing an expensive task of keeping pace if the emissions ruling does become fact in 06, how will the smaller companies survive.

The rumors going around the SSDT about Gas Gas investors pulling the plug and leaving the boss holding the baby in a large new factory need to be confirmed or denied before they turn into the rats leaving the sinking ship syndrome.

Trials is too small and bad publicity about bikes even if it's only the local clubman with a sticking back brake the news gets around fast good or bad, can hurt sales more than we think.

Is the pie big enough for five or more trials bike manufacturers to make a livable profit from ? the more choices we have as the bike buying punter the better it is for us, but could we see the choices reduced to 2 or 3 bike brands, with less sponsored riders and less options of what we may be riding in the future.

I think in the near future we are going to see some big changes in the sport, if what people are saying about the most popular clubman's bike manufacturer in the past decade is true.

Can anyone in the know, put this rumor to bed and tell us the real score??????

[neonsurge]

This may be a ridiculously simplistic way of looking at it, but since GasGas already have 4-stroke engines in their enduro bikes, surely it's much less effort to adapt an existing engine to trials use (like Sherco seem to have done) than it is to develop a new engine from scratch as Honda seem to have done (unless it really is a modded CRF lump in that bike - doesn't look like it). What are the reasons for GasGas' investors getting nervous? I think that there's more to this than is immediately apparent.

I guess the future of Scorpa and Beta relies on the details of their supply relationships with Yamaha and Suzuki respectively unless Beta have some top-secret internally-developed project that's waiting in the wings...

[the artist formerly known as ish]

Rumors are abound that Sherco will release photos of their development 4-stroke very soon, despite the project being put on hold whilst the FIM decide which way the World championship will go in the future.

Is this the problem the smaller factories are worried about, might the cost of a new machine be worth while or just a ghost.

Or could we see history repeat itself when the big thumpers of the 60s hung on thinking we have won for the past umpteen years our technology is good enough, only to find the little two strokes blew them out of contention and business.

Will it be the nail in the coffin of those who do get on with it and produce the 4t or is it a wise move to hold back and see what happens at the risk of being a year or two behind and trying to catch up, can they afford to do that?

In the enduro market they all seem to want four stroke machines know, is this a clue into the trials market.

[toofasttim]

Could be that said investors are nervous after the Gas Gas 4S enduro bike fiasco where Gas Gas cut it awfully fine financially by trying to implement fuel injection eventually successfully.

[the artist formerly known as ish]

I have no clue!! I'm not rying to start a rumor here, but end one, if it's not true I expect someone in the know will kill it and put it to bed soon, if it is true I don't think we will see anything, as it will all come out in the wash.

[Andy]

There have certainly been many rumours abound lately. I heard plenty both before and during the SSDT.

Not being a News of The World kind of site though, I'm not about to publish any because until they're confirmed one way or another they are just that - rumours.

[the artist formerly known as ish]

All this means to the average trials punter is one less choice of machine, but to the all the people who are involved for a living this is a big deal, look at the large presence the factory team has at the ssdt, and world rounds, riders, minders, mechanics, importers, dealers a lot of people in a small industry will be affected.

[eric23]

Obviously selling trials bikes cannot be the sole source of income for any manufacturer if they want to survive. Those companies that have another market to bring in the profits will be more likely to build trials bikes. Honda/Montesa certainly has enough diversity to dabble in trials for a long time. Beta seems to have a pretty good scooter business in Italy to keep the bills payed. GG has been working hard to round out their assortment of bikes over the years. Scorpa doesn't have to worry about developing an engine, that may be the best approach of all.

[hrc2002]

I see it will be very doubtful that the investors will pull out of Gas Gas, it cannot happen in my opinion.

GasGas have Adam Raga...who will take over Lampkin, putting GasGas even further on the top, GasGas also have the biggest range in trials bikes aswell as other sports.

GasGas will also get money from the GasGas/Hebo clothing range...the money is constant...perfect for investment, right?

In my opinion GasGas would be the least of the manufactures to be conserned with, although no one should name manufactures incase of starting yet more rumours.

[the artist formerly known as ish]

Enron were pretty big when they folded, all size has to do with it, is you take more with you when you go down.

[bigfoot]

I guess Gas Gas' future will depend very much on how they get on with thier quad in the USA. They've spent a lot developing it and are now pushing it heavily in the US. As you know that's a massive market if you can gain a foot hold.

[m lawson]

Dang Bigfoot

I have a heck of a time concentrating on what you have to say. That poor lass must be getting a heck of a lot of chaffing going on with all that motion.

[toomanybikes]

Look at Canondale!

Their four stroke wishes put them under. The very profitable bicycle end the business was drained also. Lot larger margin in bicycles!

I am sure GasGas has the largest margin and largest production of any of the trials manufactures but I don

[toofasttim]

Look at Canondale!

Fair point, but Cannondale were dipping their toes into a market of which they had no understanding. They had been told that the bike was too revolutionary, expensive and wouldn't sell but they ignored the advice.

Clearly this isn't the case with Gas Gas. Re the possible bailing of investor(s). Gas Gas took on investors for the development of the 4s enduro bike and expansion (amoungst others) That's all water under the bridge. In the one option the investor(s) could call in their money which has already been spent but they'd only get a fraction back. So it would be dumb to do so when Gas Gas are thriving. Or are they?

Second is that Gas Gas may have called for investors for the 4S trials bike and it may be that this investor has bailed before too much has gone down the tubes. In my opinion this is the more likely option (if the rumour is true). So it means that the 4S will take longer because it will be developed at GG expense.

My 2c worth.

TFT

[olly g]

I would just like to add neon surge has the best avatar of all time ron 'the hedgehog' Jeremy is a legend!!!!

On a more serious note, I hope that the companies keep at least 5 companies, I wasn't lucky enough to witness the era of hundreds of bike manufacturers, but at the moment 5 bikes feels like enough to choose from.

cheers from olly